Market Updates & Investment Counselling

S&P 500 posts second consecutive close above 2800

The market may be heading towards a new all time high, and that’s no April fools joke.
After closing above the 2800 level by 3 points on March 1, the S&P 500 Index retreated as some expected, until March 13th when it posted its’ first weekly close in 2019 above the benchmark (just two days later).
After enjoying its’ second consecutive weekly close above 2800 at 2834, many technicians believe the market now has a green light to trade higher, especially after economic concerns were voiced by the Federal Reserve, where they indicated a desire to place their previously anticipated interest rates on hold.
Others are hopeful that rumored concessions by Chinese bureaucrats to the American government will lead to a lessening of trade tensions and tariffs between the two superpowers, whose officials are meeting again this week.
The probability of the market continuing its’ bull run is looking good right now. In fact, several analysts are predicting that a new all-time high above 2941 (and perhaps even 3000) is likely, before any serious correction takes place.
However, given that the global economy appears to be slowing down (which would likely drag corporate earning lower in the immediate future), caution is still warranted later in the year. This is especially true if the odds of a recession continue to increase as the inverted yield curve in the bond market suggests is possible.
The ides of March has come and gone with no negative effects. Baring a breakdown of the 2800 level, a negative US/China outcome or a Brexit disaster, it might be wise to focus on the ides of October or November and let the trend be your friend until then.

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